Dealer Bust Probability: How Often the Dealer Breaks

Bust chance by up card

The figures below are approximate long-run bust rates for a multi-deck game where the dealer stands on soft 17. They come from standard published calculations; small rule changes move them by a point or two. For an ace, the figure covers hands where the dealer does not have blackjack.

Why 4, 5 and 6 are weak

Cause and effect is easy to see. A dealer showing 5 or 6 will very often have a hidden ten-value card, giving 15 or 16. With those totals they must draw, and many cards push them over 21. Even when they draw a small card, they may land on another stiff total and have to draw again. A dealer showing a 10 or ace often already has a strong hand of 17 or more and simply stands.

The 7 is the dividing line. With a 7 showing, a hidden 10 makes 17, a total the dealer must stand on, so the bust chance drops sharply from around 42% for a 6 to about 26%.

From bust rates to decisions

Suppose you hold a hard 14. If you hit, you bust on any card from 8 upward, which is a large share of the deck. If you stand, you win only if the dealer busts. Against a 6, the dealer busts about 42% of the time, and standing is the better choice. Against a 10, the dealer busts only about 21% of the time, and 14 almost always loses if the dealer does not bust, so hitting is better despite the risk.

That logic produces the familiar rule: stand on 12 to 16 against a dealer 2 to 6 (with the exception of hitting 12 against a 2 or 3), and hit against 7 or higher. Doubling on 9, 10 or 11 against weak dealer cards works for the same reason: the dealer is likely to break, so it pays to have more money on the table.

What this does not mean

A 42% bust chance means the dealer does not bust 58% of the time, even with a 6 showing. Standing on 16 against a 6 still loses more often than it wins in many cases; it is simply the less bad option. Basic strategy chooses the decision with the best average outcome, not one that usually wins. Over a hypothetical evening of 200 hands, the dealer would bust on roughly 56 of them, give or take quite a lot. Our blackjack rules guide has the core decisions, and our gambler's fallacy post explains why a dealer who has not busted for a while is not "due".

Checking the rules on PJOK tables

Two rules shift these figures: whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, and how many decks are used. Hitting soft 17 slightly increases the dealer's bust chance with some up cards but makes the game a little worse for players overall, because the dealer also improves more often. The rules panel on each blackjack table in the PJOK lobby shows which rules apply. See the live casino hub for other table games.